Covid-19 has caused an unprecedented shock to rail passenger demand. However, in times of crises, new opportunities can also arise. With only three of the eight key direct destinations from London exploited to date, the cross-Channel highspeed rail market offers a large untapped market ready to seize.  HS1, together with our partner Infrastructure Managers, have done much to prepare the ground to ensure this opportunity can be taken as quickly as possible and help speed operators’ path to recovery.

History has few examples of modern global pandemics to learn from.  However, travels sectors around the world have suffered multiple catastrophic demand shocks where lessons may be drawn.  One that will loom large in the memory of anyone old enough to remember is September 11th 2001.  The terrorist attacks shook to the core consumer confidence in global aviation.  It took five years for the industry to recover to pre-attack passenger volumes. And in that time, the aviation industry had been upended.  Older and established carriers preciously guarded their established routes and grappled with cost savings, effectively hunkering down waiting for passengers to come back.  In the process, they lost market share to scrappy risk-taking low-cost operators.  On top of their innovative business model, key to low-cost operators’ success was a willingness to seek out untapped markets that established carriers had dismissed and overlooked.   Rail undoubtedly has to look at costs too, but history shows those who are likely to come out on top, are those who find new markets rather than waiting for old ones to return.

Even diminished by Covid-19, the untapped cross-channel rail markets will be sizable when it is safe to travel again.  Official British Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) statistics show in 2019 that there were 16.4m air journeys from London to near-continental destinations where highspeed rail can offer a competitive journey time.  As rail Infrastructure Managers serving the cross-Channel market, we have long been aware of the potential of these untapped markets and so had fortunately already been busy paving the way.   Working with SNCF-Réseau, Eurotunnel and LISEA, as our first route, we selected London-Bordeaux.  The region is home to one in four British citizens living in France, in part contributing to the almost one million air journeys between the London and Bordeaux regions in this same year.  Together, we have taken a practical problem-solving approach, putting ourselves in the position of an operator and pre-empting and solving the challenges they may face.  This approach has borne results.  We have made concrete steps to unlocking this market – from preparing the ground with regulators to detailed costing for border facilities.  Perfect for a nimble-footed rail operator looking to replace market share…

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This is how EIM members concretely celebrate the 2021 European Year of Rail!